Assumption-based development systematically de-risks ideas, prioritizing the Riskiest Assumption first.
WHY ASSUMPTION BASED DEVELOPMENT?
- Built to sustain learning on multiple ideas in tandem, instead of one idea, allowing teams to pursue multiple paths forward.
- Behavior-based experiments inform pivot, perish, or persevere decisions, systematically building a mounting body of evidence for each idea.
- Saves teams time by killing ideas that aren’t Desirable, Viable, or Feasible early in the process.
WHY IT’S DIFFERENT:
- Prioritizes Proving/Disproving the Riskiest Assumption first.
- Moves away from “Go/No Go” Decision Making.
- Informs a “Pivot, Perish or Persevere” Decision.
- Built to sustain learning on multiple ideas in tandem.
- Saves teams time by killing ideas that aren’t Desirable, Viable or Feasible early in the process.
BENEFITS OF ASSUMPTION BASED DEVELOPMENT VS. THE “TRADITIONAL” PROCESS
- Faster: Quick turn-arounds (usually 48 hours or less)
- Cheaper: Enables more iteration and testing – instead of putting all eggs in one basket
- Safer: Tests rely on actual transactions and behavior
- Smarter: Find product-market fit in a volatile world, without compromising rigor.
Instead of relying on traditional stage-gate, survey-based research to prioritize ideas, multiple ideas are de-risked in parallel via fast, rigorous experiments. After each round of testing, teams make a Pivot, Perish, or Persevere recommendation to leadership to garner growing amounts of evidence, to unlock approval to continue learning. Each Build, Test, Learn Loop is structured to be conducted in 2-3 days, superimposing constraints to drive quick decision-making.
A Business Model Canvas is used to collect Assumptions across the holistic Business Model, helping teams to ask “what would need to be true” for each idea to be successful in market. Using a structured process, teams identify, then prioritize Assumptions to build future tests to prove/disprove.
